OpportunityTitle: Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit, North &amp; West Alaska CESU
AdditionalInformationOnEligibility: This financial assistance opportunity is being issued under a Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit (CESU) Program.  CESUs are partnerships that provide research, technical assistance, and education.  Eligible recipients must be a participating partner of the North &amp; West Alaska Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit (CESU) Program.
Description: The USGS Alaska Science Center seeks to provide financial assistance for research to evaluate the potential climate-driven effects of future fire regimes and shrubland/forest expansion across the boreal-arctic transition zone of Alaska relative to the breeding distribution of migratory bird populations. Habitats selected by birds for breeding are strongly influenced by both the structure and composition of the vegetation. The transition zone between the boreal and arctic biomes is expected to be one of the most dynamically altered zones in response to climate change. Fire is the major disturbance factor in the boreal forest, and secondary succession after fire is the primary process of vegetation change in this region. Climatic warming is predicted to cause an increase in wildland fires at the same time that the range limits of tree species are shifting in response to changes in temperature and effective moisture. This combination of more frequent fires and altered growing season conditions may cause unprecedented shifts in forest biogeography throughout the boreal region over the next century. Increases in the distribution, densities, and vertical structure of shrubs within this transition zone are expected to be even more rapid than changes in the extent and structure of forests. Shrub growth is accelerating due to changes in temperature and precipitation, increases in frequency and intensity of tundra fires, melting of permafrost, changes in snow conditions, and associated feedbacks. The two morphological features with the greatest impact on the occurrence of bird species in the arctic and boreal forest regions of Alaska are the occurrence of water and the height of the woody vegetation, with more moderate effects of spatial heterogeneity of habitats, density of woody plants, and whether plants are coniferous or deciduous. Changes in the frequency, intensity, and extent of fires across the boreal forest and arctic tundra can alter not only the composition, age and size of the mature trees but also the patchiness of early-successional vegetation across the landscape. Thus, fire and climate are critical controlling factors of habitat structure for birds in this region, as they determine both successional stage and the range limits (both latitudinal and elevational) of important vegetation. This research will apply downscaled climate scenarios to simulated landscapes encompassing the boreal-arctic transition zone of Alaska to evaluate potential effects of climate change on these landscapes through the end of the century. The simulation domain is broadly defined as north of the Yukon River to the northern foothills of the Brooks Range from the Seward Peninsula to the Alaska-Canada border. Landscape modeling will be conducted at 1-km2 resolution. Models will investigate potential changes in the vegetative structure and composition of avian habitats within this domain by simulating dynamics among climate, fire, and woody vegetation relative to landscape characteristics and successional stages. Projected changes in habitat will, in turn, be evaluated for their potential effects on future breeding distributions of a selected suite of migratory bird species across the boreal-arctic transition zone.Climate change is already strongly influencing the distribution and abundance of many plant and animal species at both latitudinal and elevational margins of their ranges. Recent studies have documented significant northward shifts in breeding distributions of several species of birds in Alaska but little is understood about the ecological processes governing these changes. The boreal-arctic transition zone provides continentally critical breeding grounds for an important and unique northern avifauna. Resource managers in Alaska are concerned with potential effects of climate change on migratory bird species but to date have had little information with which to plan for possible changes in population distribution, abundance, or biodiversity. Climate change scenarios need to be downscaled to define potential future conditions across the regional and local landscape. The research solicited here will apply fine-scale climate model predictions to simulated landscapes under current conditions to evaluate what potential ecological responses to climate change can be expected. Such information is crucial for developing appropriate adaptive management strategies, including response to changing fire dynamics, that will address the potential ecological effects of climate changes on boreal and arctic migratory bird populations.
GrantorContactEmailDescription: Contract Specialist
GrantorContactText: FAITH GRAVES &lt;br/&gt;Contract Specialist &lt;br/&gt;Phone 703-648-7356