OpportunityTitle: Modeling the Effects of Past and Future Climate Change on GLKN Lakes
AdditionalInformationOnEligibility: This is a &quot;Notice of Intent&quot; of a single source task agreement award to the Science Museum of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN under the Great Lakes Northern Forest Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit (CESU). The current project, described herein, builds on the foundation of the prior collaborative effort and requires the knowledge gained previously for accurate interpretation of results.  The PI&apos;s are recognized internationally for their expertise in the subject matter. They have extensive experience working in National Park units and have developed a diatom training set specific to the Great Lakes region that correlates diatom communities with known lake environmental conditions.
Description: Remote interior lakes in national park units of the Great Lakes Network (GLKN) are experiencing unexpected ecological change, including blooms of noxious blue-green algae. Sediment-core data indicate that these changes are unique in the recent history of the lakes. However, land-use change and related increases in phosphorus input are not the likely cause. Rather, the lakes may be responding to a warming climate, as indicated by a lengthening of the ice-free season and stronger thermal stratification during summer. This project will explore whether there is a causal link between observed temperature increases and ecological conditions in GLKN lakes, the likely physical and biological controls, and how these effects vary among different types of lakes. This study will: (1) Compare diatom-based reconstructions of ecological change among four general lake types likely to represent a range of sensitivity to climate warming; specifically shallow and deep lakes and lakes with small and large surface areas; and (2) Reconstruct the thermal conditions (stratification, ice-free season, temperatures) of the study lakes based on local climate records and hydrodynamic lake models. These lake-thermal records will then be compared with ecological reconstructions from the sediment cores to develop predictive relationships between lake type and climate-induced ecological risk.
GrantorContactEmailDescription: Help Desk
GrantorContactText: Tonya Bradley &lt;br/&gt;Contract Specialist &lt;br/&gt;Phone 402-661-1656